Summary:

On 9 November 2022, a large shipment of fuel donated by the national unity government of Libya arrived in Tunisia via cargo ship. The Libyan embassy in Tunis noted that the donation of fuel was an expression of solidarity between the two countries as Tunisia continues to face fuel shortages.

Outlook:  

In the short term, the provision of fuel will help alleviate pressure on Tunisia’s strategic fuel reserves and lower public discontent. We are closely watching how the Tunisian government will manage the issue in the long term, as public tolerance for the acute shortages experienced in October will likely be low. Libya and Tunisia may also both be experiencing increased volatility along their shared border as smuggling operations increase and adapt to meet the demand for fuel and other commodities. Libya’s donation may be motivated by a desire to create more stability in both the official and black fuel markets which would support a more predictable security environment along the border.