Summary:

On 28 December 2022, a coalition of four civil society groups announced plans to begin outlining a national dialogue process. The purpose of the dialogue was explicitly to address the economic crisis and what some civil society members view as a dangerous centralization of power under President Kais Saied.

The coalition consists of the four members of the National Dialogue Quartet, which was collectively awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2015 for their collaboration on rebuilding Tunisia’s government following the 2011 revolution that removed former President Ben Ali. The Quartet includes the country’s two main labor unions – Union Generale Tunisienne du Travail (UGTT) and the Union Tunisienne de l’industrie, du commerce et de l’artisanat (UTICA) – as well as the Tunisian Human Rights League (LTDH) and Tunisian Order of Lawyers (ONAT).

The coalition indicated that it had merely begun initial discussions, but noted that additional announcements could be expected in January. The UGTT has already announced plans for a large-scale strike of transport workers, which the union’s leader, Noureddine Taboubi, attributes to the government’s marginalization of public sector firms and workers.

Outlook:  

We are closely monitoring these developments as an early indication of momentum building against President Saied’s reform program. While the President has had many critics to this point, opposition figures and groups have been unable to organize around an alternative agenda or proposal. This coalition could point to a growing willingness among Tunisia’s political class to put aside differences and meaningfully organize. In the short and medium term, this could have a destabilizing effect on conditions on the ground in Tunisia as the opposition looks to express its discontent with the President’s political and economic trajectory.

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