Summary:

On 10 March 2023, President Kais Saied announced his interest in Tunisia and Syria restoring ambassadorial positions, indicating an increasing likelihood that Tunisia will normalize relations with the Bashar al-Assad government in Damascus. Tunisia has not had official diplomatic relations with Syria since 2011 when the Assad government began a brutal crackdown on Arab Spring protests throughout the country leading to the country’s civil war.

In 2017, some diplomatic activity resumed as Tunisia sought to track the thousands of Tunisian citizens who travelled to Syria to participate in the fighting. More recently, President Saied has indicated that the resumption of ties might be of interest, having stated that he views the Syrian civil war as a matter for Syrians alone to resolve. The devastating earthquake that took place in southern Turkey and northern Syria has served as a pretext for reengagement with potential allies by the Assad government.

Outlook:  

President Kais Saied’s government is keenly interested in identifying allies as it continues to navigate a rocky political and economic season, coinciding with recent missteps with migrants that have led to international backlash. A rapprochement with the Syrian government poses some risks, but is unlikely to significantly ruffle feathers in the short term, particularly given that Tunisia continues to have a large group of citizens in Syria engaged in the fighting. However, in the longer term, this relationship could create conflict with Western partners as the Assad regime remains under numerous sanctions.

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