Summary:

On 1 April 2024, the United States Department of Agriculture released an annual Grain and Feed report, predicting improved wheat and barley production in Tunisia due to favorable winter weather conditions. 

Well-timed winter rains look to increase wheat production from 441,000 tonnes in the 2023-2024 harvest to 1.25 million tonnes in the upcoming harvest season. This would mark a nearly 200% increase in production, but would fall closer to broadly expected production levels for Tunisia. 

The report notes that the month of April is a critical growth season for Tunisian wheat. April rains could increase production further by as much as 20%. 

Wheat consumption in Tunisia is estimated at 2.9 tonnes with approximately 2% annual growth in consumption. 

Outlook: 

Despite the potential for wheat and barley production to return to more average rates, the shortfall against consumption will remain, putting additional pressure on the government’s subsidy program. 

Increased production will provide some economic relief, but the Tunisian economy still faces massive challenges in 2024 with significant foreign debt repayments pending. 

Furthermore, despite some well-timed winter rains, Tunisia’s water crisis remains far from over with dam fill rates still far below average, prompting ongoing efforts to limit water consumption.

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