Summary:

On 28 August 2024, the ousted governor of the Libyan Central Bank, Sadik El-Kebir, stated that he had requested the House of Representatives (HoR) to issue orders to begin the process of transitioning the Central Bank’s headquarters operations to the cities of Al-Bayad and Benghazi in eastern Libya.

El-Kebir also stated that he plans to prosecute the President and members of the Presidential Council for incitement against him and for illegally replacing him and endangering the Central Bank and its employees.

Days later he announced that he and other functionaries in the Bank were obliged to flee Libya amid threats of armed attacks and detention if they continue their work.

Outlook: 

In the short term, the successful transfer of the Central Bank to eastern Libya is unlikely as such a move would require far more preparation as well as coordination with foreign banks to transfer their transactions.

Foreign banks would be unlikely to readily agree to transfer their banking to the eastern government which remains largely unrecognized internationally.

However, the request from the Central Bank governor reflects a long-term aim of the Eastern government to drain the resources of Tripoli and shift the balance of power in Libya to the East.

While UNSMIL continues to play a mediating role in an effort to  settle the Central Bank crisis, any resolution is likely to be temporary as both sides currently appear committed to expanding their power rather seeking mediated compromises.

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