Summary:

In late October 2025, the Tunisian government submitted the draft 2026 Finance Law to parliament, which outlines significant fiscal policy changes with direct implications on the business environment.  

A central provision authorizes the Treasury to receive an 11 billion TND (approx. $3.5 billion USD) interest-free facility from the Central Bank. This mechanism of direct monetary financing is being utilized to cover a substantial budget deficit amidst stalled negotiations with the IMF and a general tendency of the current government to avoid international lending. 

On the operational level, the draft law introduces multiple measures affecting costs and competition: 

• Private sector wages and pensions would increase for three consecutive years starting from 2026, which will directly impact labor costs for employers.  

• The law also introduces a new 4% contribution on the profits of specific sectors, including banks, insurance, and telecom operators to help fund social security deficits.  

• Further, it allocates new credit lines and extends support for state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and “community companies” (Arabic Pronunciation: Sheriket Ahliya). 

The draft also introduces a package of subsidies aimed at incentivizing investment. This includes:  

• covering social security contributions for five years when hiring highly educated graduates 

• implementing multiple tax and customs duty reductions for imports for the green energy sector (including electric vehicles and renewable energy components) 

• covering a portion of the interest on bank loans for investments in green energy projects 

• subsidizing interest rates on investment loans for small and medium-sized enterprises in agriculture and other sectors. 

Outlook: 

The 2026 draft finance law points to a continued reliance on domestic and state-led mechanisms to manage the economy, which has been the default posture of the economy for many years.  

The use of direct Central Bank financing introduces a heightened risk of currency depreciation and inflation, which will likely increase import costs and add complexity to financial forecasting for foreign firms. This forecasting challenge is compounded by the draft’s noted lack of transparency; it was submitted without the legally required supporting documents, including the core macroeconomic assumptions upon which the budget is based, which raises questions about governance and transparency. 

The mandated wage increases represent a clear rise in operational costs that companies must factor into their medium-term planning. Simultaneously, increased state support for SOEs and community companies may create market distortions and new competitive pressures with unexpected impacts in different regions and markets. 

Opportunities may arise from the proposed investment incentives. The talent acquisition subsidies can significantly lower the cost of hiring skilled local staff. The green transition incentives offer an opportunity for firms in the automotive, logistics, and renewable energy sectors to reduce costs and leverage government policy priority. While the final law is subject to parliamentary review, companies should begin assessing how these fiscal shifts will impact their 2026-2028 operational strategies. 

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