Summary:

On 3 February 2026, Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, son of former Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, was killed at his residence in Zintan, approximately 136 km southwest of Tripoli. According to reports, four masked assailants entered the house and fatally shot him.   

Libya’s Attorney General’s office confirmed that he died from gunshot wounds and announced the opening of an investigation. No group has claimed responsibility for the killing, while the 444th Infantry Brigade denied any involvement.  

Libyan prosecution sources believe the attack was carried out using a Kalashnikov-type rifle.   

The same sources claimed that security personnel assigned to guard the perimeter of the residence withdrew around 90 minutes before the attack, for reasons that remain under investigation. Authorities are also examining digital communications linked to mobile phones found on the scene, including contacts registered abroad, and reviewing surveillance systems reportedly connected to individuals outside Zintan.  

Gaddafi was buried on 6 February in the town of Bani Walid, where a large funeral was held, attended by family members, tribal figures, and supporters.  

As of now, the parliamentary investigation committee has not released an official report, and judicial authorities have not independently confirmed the claims. The circumstances surrounding the killing remain under active investigation.  

Outlook: 

Since Saif al-Islam Gaddafi was regarded as politically distinct from his father’s governing approach, he was seen by some actors as a more pragmatic and potentially acceptable leader within Libya’s fragmented political landscape. His assassination, therefore, marks a critical moment in Libya’s ongoing and fragile efforts toward political stability, particularly as he was widely viewed as a potential contender in the presidential elections scheduled for April.  

In this context, his killing can be interpreted as the removal of a political obstacle, as he had emerged as an influential figure capable of mobilizing popular support and reshaping the electoral landscape.  

While his death is likely to provoke reactions among his supporters in specific regions, a broader political escalation or deepening entrenchment remains unlikely. Both eastern and western power centers appear focused on maintaining a relatively static and balanced posture, limiting the risk of immediate destabilization.   

As such, the assassination is not expected to trigger major political shifts in the near term. However, it may contribute to shaping a more permissive security and political environment ahead of upcoming developments, particularly those linked to economic interests and oil-sector investments.  

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