Summary:

On 5 October 2026, Tunisia’s National Institute of Statistics (INS) reported that annual inflation rose to 5.6% in September, marking a third consecutive monthly increase and reversing the gradual decline recorded between 2023 and 2025. 

Economist Ridha Chkoundali attributed the renewed price pressures primarily to structural weaknesses in domestic supply, arguing that production and energy constraints are driving up costs, limiting the effectiveness of the Central Bank of Tunisia’s monetary policy. 

Economist Aram Belhadj similarly warned that inflation could exceed 6% in early 2027, pointing to persistent food and energy pressures. 

MP Imed Oulad Jibril challenged official claims of economic improvement, arguing that inflation and deficit figures overlook declining employment, rising graduate unemployment and continued erosion of household purchasing power. 

Outlook: 

Although Tunisia’s 2026 Finance Law was prepared under different energy-market conditions, the Strait of Hormuz disruption now injects fresh uncertainty into the assumptions behind the 2027 Finance Law debate. 

As higher energy prices risk increasing import costs and feeding into domestic inflation, the next budget will face greater pressure to account for external shocks amid already rising food prices. However, with inflation driven partly by structural supply constraints, the renewed energy shock could further complicate efforts to contain price growth through monetary policy alone.

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