Summary:

On 19 May 2023, an agricultural union official announced that Tunisia will likely need to import about 95% of its grains during the coming harvest season as production drops due to the ongoing water crisis.

While Tunisia has, in recent years, produced nearly 750,000 tons of grains, it is estimated that production this year may only reach 250,000 tons. Tunisia exports some grain, particularly to France.

Tunisia’s grain needs on an annual basis are estimated at 3.4 million tons. If 250,000 tons are produced that would equal only 7% of the country’s annual needs.

Meanwhile, date exports reportedly fell in both volume and value during the most recent harvest season. Production volume fell by 2.3% while total export value fell by 4.4%.

These numbers come on the heels of recent reporting that production from the 2022-2023 fruit harvest season feel by around 24% based on recent years. This drop was also attributed to strain on fruit trees from lack of water.

Outlook:  

Downstream impacts of the ongoing water crisis continue to manifest across Tunisia’s agricultural landscape as stressed crops produce below typical averages.

Farmers are accustomed to cultivating dates with limited water resources, though the dip in production points to broader water supply issues. Grains are much more sensitive to disruptions in the climate and will likely show the stress from the water shortage more demonstrably. The numbers issued so far are merely estimates, but point to the economic stress that is growing across Tunisia’s agricultural heartland.

We are continuing to monitor the agricultural sector for signals of a deepening economic crisis that could push Tunisia’s more marginalized populations toward frustration and potential unrest.

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