Summary:

From 6 – 9 June 2024, the European Union held European Parliamentary elections, with 185 million voters across 27 countries electing an increasingly conservative set of representatives which included gains for “far-right” parties. 

Analysts broadly agreed that the election results favored conservative parties across Europe. While centrist groups, specifically the European People’s Party, will retain significant representation, losses among more left-leaning parties and gains for far-right groups signal a conservative trend. 

Gains by “ultranationalist” parties in France and Germany raised concerns amongst commentators that traditionally centrist strongholds in Europe’s larger countries could signal wider trends toward nationalism and a less unified and open EU. 

Outlook: 

Increasingly conservative politics in the EU could result in shifts in EU policy toward Tunisia, particularly as it relates to migration. Nationalism in Europe will increase skepticism toward migration in general and potentially lead to a stronger program of supporting interception and disruption in African countries like Tunisia.  

Conservative governments could favor more security-oriented solutions to the irregular migration challenge, funding security forces and their operations which could lead to additional tensions over human rights.  

While any such policy shift is likely to be incremental, such shifts toward a security-oriented approach could further isolate Tunisia from its Western partners in the long-term. 

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