Summary:

On 13 August 2024, the Libyan House of Representative (HoR) voted to oust Tripoli’s government, including Prime Minister Abdel Hamid Dbeibah, who leads the National Unity Government, as well as the Presidential Council headed by Chairman Mohamed Al-Menfi.  

The HoR also appointed its President, Aguila Saleh, as the High Commander of the Army and called for the Eastern-based National Stability Government, led by Osama Hammad and supported by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, to be recognized as the only “legitimate” government in the country until a new “unified” cabinet is elected.  

Dbeibah refused to implement the HoR’s decision stating that his government derives its legitimacy from a prior political agreement which stipulates that the government will end its duties by holding presidential and legislative elections. 

Meanwhile, the Central Bank Governor, Sadek El-Kebir, said during a meeting in Tunis with the US Ambassador to Libya, that armed groups are threatening the security of the Central Bank employees. 

Days prior, clashes had erupted between militiamen in Tripoli after an assassination attempt on Bashir Khalafallah, the leader of Rahbat al-Duru’s militia. 

Outlook: 

HoR’s decision to attempt to remove the Tripoli-based government was likely prompted by Tripoli’s recent attempt to oust the Central Bank’s Governor after Dbeibah publicly criticized Sadek El-Kebir following his claims that Tripoli is over-spending, leading to budget imbalances.  

As the Central Bank is critical to the eastern government’s plans to seek profits from the National Oil Company revenues channeled through it, the HoR has likely reacted against Tripoli’s pressures to preserve its influence while moving toward establishing a new unified government as outlined in Cairo on 18 July. 

With Tripoli’s government struggling to contain militia violence in Tripoli and the eastern government’s influence, Dbeibah’s government is at its most fragile in recent years, especially after the election of opponent Khaled Al-Meshri as the head of the Council of State to replace the Tripoli-supported Mohamed Tekala. 

Fearing escalation, the United Nations Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) as well as the United States have been increasing calls for dialogue and visits to neighboring countries including Tunisia, to seek mediation. 

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