Summary:

In the first half of 2023, approved private agricultural investments fell by 22.3% compared to the same period in 2022 according to data published by Tunisia’s Agricultural Investment Promotion Agency.

The decline in overall value of approved investment corresponded to a decline of approximately 230 expected jobs to be generated from the first half of 2022. Expected jobs to be generated fell from 1715 to 1483.

Notable declines in specific sectors included an 82% drop in livestock investment. The poultry sector also saw a nearly 40% drop in investment.

Additionally, investments approved for young people fell by approximately 35% along with investments for projects led by women which fell by nearly 30%.

Outlook:  

Declines in approved agricultural investments are concerning, even if not unsurprising given the difficult year faced across multiple agricultural sectors in the face of drought.

The decline in livestock investment is particularly concerning as milk shortages have been an ongoing challenge in Tunisia for months. The existing subsidy and price control system on milk has been pressuring livestock owners out of the market, with many either legally or illegally shrinking their herds to avoid operating at a loss. Farmers have, at times, been forced to produced milk at a loss due to the complex system of government controls on the industry.

Shrinking investment in both livestock and poultry could portend additional milk shortages and increased prices of meat. Lower domestic production of products commonly consumed by Tunisians will put additional pressure on the government to facilitate imports which have already stretched the national budget to the breaking point.

Our team is continuing to monitor the investment climate and economic indicators for potential impacts to the risk environment in Tunisia.

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