Summary:

May 2023 reports have raised the possibility of a potential conflict over shared groundwater resources increasingly drawn upon by Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya as all three countries struggle to manage the impacts of the ongoing drought.

Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya share utilization of the Ghadames Basin, a massive groundwater reservoir that lies beneath all three countries. The Basin covers approximately 350,000 square kilometers and has long been explored by oil and natural gas firms.

A 2022 report from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) noted that Tunisia “suffers from variability in rainfall and ranks among those countries with the least water resources in the Mediterranean.” This reality makes Tunisia’s population increasingly dependent on groundwater resources.

A separate report from the Direction Generale des Ressources en Eau found that the “mobilization and development of groundwater resources has been accelerated over the last decades,” stretching utilization to the limits of availability. The same report notes that the “rate of groundwater extraction in many aquifers is unsustainable” across north, central, and southern Tunisia.

Recent reporting has highlighted growing concern that the Algerian government is using water from Ghadames Basin for shale oil exploration and extraction which can be a water-intensive activity. Algeria has had to resort to tap water rationing on multiple occasions in recent years.

Concern has also grown in Tunisia around the construction of dams in Algeria that could compromise Tunisian access to traditional water sources. The Ain Dalia dam on the Medjerda River has reduced water flows that have traditionally filled the Sidi Salem Dam in Beja, Tunisia.

The issue of groundwater was raised by a commentator during a recent diplomatic spat between Algeria and Tunisia after reports indicated that Algeria is collaborating with Italy to help maintain stability in Tunisia.

Outlook:  

Groundwater resources will likely come under increasing focus as the high variability in rainfall across North Africa continues to create economic and social challenges across Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya.

Conflict between the North African neighbors has yet to fully emerge in the public conversation; however, the interdependence between the countries on above ground and underground water resources will require deconfliction and collaboration moving into the future.

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