Summary:

The 2022-2023 fruit season has seen a 24% drop in national production from past years, shining an additional spotlight on the impacts of Tunisia’s multi-year drop in rainfall. According to an industry group with access to production data, this season’s production of 223,000 tonnes of fruit will fall far short of the 294.5 tonnes produced during the 2021-2022 fruit production season.

Growers have cited the disruptive nature of unpredictable climate conditions on fruit trees, which are highly sensitive to changes in watering and to seasonal trends in temperature. This year, trees suffered from increased temperatures throughout the winter and more challenging access to water supplies which have been disrupted by quotas or shutoffs.

Growers have sought to compensate for lower production by increasing fruit exports, seeking the much higher prices that can be achieved in gulf countries or neighboring Libya. However, challenges remain to increasing exports, including high transport costs. Libya currently imports an estimated 80-90% of Tunisia’s fruit exports, serving as a key partner for fruit exports.

A recent report on climate change in the Arab world from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace highlighted how shifts in climate change can expose political discontent below. The same frustrations that were sparked by the Arab Spring uprisings could be growing as “economic and political power…remain concentrated in various ways around coastal economies, as is already the case, while interior regions will keep experiencing degradation of economic and social opportunities.”

Outlook:  

The Tunisian economy remains highly vulnerable to climate disruption, particularly in the agricultural sector. While politics, civil society, and wealth concentrate in coastal hubs, much of the population remains formally or informally dependent on the agricultural sector.

While likely slow to play out, the long-term strains on agricultural communities could lead to unpredictable unrest in the future as Tunisia’s economic challenges continue with no clear path to systemic change.

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