Summary:

On 1 December 2023, the Ministry of the Interior announced that an Islamic State (also known as “Daesh”) cell had been disrupted in the suburbs of the capital city of Tunis, leading to the arrest of six individuals. The cell had been coordinating an operation online that would have targeted an unspecified company in Cap Bon to steal funds that would support further operations. 

Separately, on 30 November 2023, National Guard units conducted a large-scale operation in Kasserine resulting in over 40 arrests of individuals wanted on various charges. The operation disrupted drug, money laundering and sports betting operations among other criminal activities. 

The area around Kasserine remains a focal point for extremist activity in Tunisia, with a Tunisian soldier wounded by an improvised explosive device (IED) in that area earlier this year. In 2015, Kasserine was identified as a “pipeline” for jihadist recruiting at a time when Tunisia was supplying more foreign fighters than any other country to fill the ranks of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. 

These operations follow an uptick in counterterrorism operations reported by the Tunisian government in the wake of the escape of five convicted terrorists in late October. Among the incidents reported was the capture of an individual reportedly planning an attack overseas. 

Outlook: 

The increase in counterterrorism operations reported by the government could indicate an increase in identified threats. However, the increase could also represent an effort by the government to communicate competence and operational control of the environment following the late October escape of five convicted terrorists from prison. 

Amidst the tensions with the EU over irregular migration, the Tunisian government may feel particular pressure to assuage European concerns about security risks from some irregular migrants, especially following the shooting of two people in Brussels by a Tunisian migrant. 

Additionally, increased anti-Western sentiment in the wake of the conflict in Israel/Palestine could be creating additional terrorism risk as individuals already vulnerable to radicalization are inundated with media that may inspire terrorist violence. 

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