Analyst Q&A with Mohamed Salah Chatti:

With potentially significant shifts shaping Libya’s future, we asked our risk analyst, Mohamed Salah Chatti, to answer a few questions to help us get oriented and understand where things have been and where they might be going.

Q: Where do things stand in Libya today? 

A: After two days of fighting, the security and political situation in Libya has shifted considerably. The fighting resulted in deaths, injuries, property destruction, looting and the escape of prisoners, all of which have sparked anger throughout Tripoli. While the fighting has seemingly paused, it is a tense pause with many political questions unanswered.  

Crowds in Tripoli protested, calling for the resignation of Prime Minster Abdelhamid Dbeibah who is blamed widely for having initiated the fighting. Some political figures are distancing themselves from him, including signs that his partnership with the Presidential Council may be at risk.   

With Dbeibah’s footing looking less sure, Haftar is creating options for himself in the east, repositioning troops to Sirte. 

Q: What led to the recent violence in Tripoli? 

A: Fighting began after Dbeibah ordered that several institutions be disbanded, all of which were allied to the Stability Support Apparatus (SSA) leader, Abdelghani Al-Kikli, called Ghniwa. The effort to disband was, in effect, an effort to cut these militias off from funding. The real spark that started the violence appears to be the killing of Ghniwa during a meeting with the Minister of Interior, Imed Trabelsi, and other government-allied officials regarding the SSA’s activities. 

Q: What factors will determine what happens in the coming days? 

A: The Presidential Council has countered PM Dbeibah’s orders to disband institutions run by key militias, but his response to this opposition from the Council will have a significant impact on what happens next. The Tripoli and Misrata militias are not likely to take their loss of funding lying down, so Dbeibah’s next steps will be critical.  

Dbeibah is under pressure now. Realigning with the Presidential Council will be a step back and potentially appear like he is losing influence. On the other hand, refusing to back down will almost certainly prompt action from the militias, including more clashes.  

Meanwhile, Haftar’s perceptions of a potential opportunity could have a huge impact on the situation. If Haftar mounts an attack on Misrata or Tripoli, this could have either a unifying or fragmenting effect on Tripoli.  

Q: Is more fighting/instability possible and why? 

A: Libyan civilians have responded strongly and negatively to the recent fighting which touched some areas of Tripoli that residents considered “off limits” for fighting. This response may pressure militias to avoid the same type of fighting but could lead to more targeted acts of violence, including assassinations or kidnappings of key officials, in order to gain political leverage at a fragile moment. Institutions like the Central Bank or the National Oil Company could be viewed as fair game in order for militias to make their point about wanting access to government revenues to fund their operations.  

More fighting is certainly possible. With Dbeibah’s actions against the militias having shaken up alliances and perceptions, the situation in Tripoli is a powder keg. There are many opportunities to defuse, but it remains to be seen if key actors believe they have too much to lose by compromising or negotiating.  

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