Summary:

Between 21 and 23 December 2025, several media outlets reported that Unified Force of the Confederation of Sahel States (AES) forces carried out a targeted counterterrorism operation in the Nioro region of western Mali, near the Mauritanian border, destroying a terrorist logistics base.  

Using actionable intelligence, the raid aimed to disrupt armed group supply chains and limit cross-border movement along a strategically sensitive corridor. This action came immediately after the inauguration of the AES, which was officially launched on 20 December 2025 in Bamako by General Assimi Goïta. 

Despite these efforts, insecurity continues to drive displacement into southeastern Mauritania. The UNHCR reports that more than 1,100 Malian refugees crossed the border last week, bringing recent arrivals since late October 2025 to approximately 7,300, in addition to over 300,000 Malians already hosted in the country.  

Civilians fleeing jihadist violence, military operations, and economic hardship are creating increasingly precarious conditions, intensifying humanitarian need at the Hodh Chargui and at the Mbera camps in southern Mauritania, where resources remain critically limited. 

Outlook: 

Mauritania continues to face significant humanitarian pressure from the ongoing influx of Malian refugees, which is likely to persist as insecurity spreads in western and central Mali due to extremist operations. While AES operations have demonstrated the ability to conduct targeted raids, the alliance is unlikely to function as a high-impact counterterrorism force capable of substantially altering the security environment. 

Cross-border displacement is expected to continue, straining local resources and humanitarian capacity, particularly in Hodh Chargui and the Mbera camp. 

Government and aid actors will need to maintain contingency planning, coordinate support in host communities, and monitor evolving security dynamics along the border to manage both immediate and medium-term risks.  

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