Summary:

In early August, the Tunisian government announced that around 1,500 private bakeries would no longer be allowed to purchase government-subsidized flour. The announcement has led to the closure of many bakeries and sit-ins by bakers who enjoyed access to cheaper flour for many years.

On 7 August 2023, approximately 200 bakers staged a sit-in at the Ministry of Commerce in Tunis, decrying the policy change that impacted their operations.

Leaders of a group representing the private (also known as “modern” or “European”) bakeries said that as many as 18,000 jobs could be at risk with access to subsidized flour now limited. The private bakeries produce a more diverse selection of bread and pastries beyond the white flour baguette consumed daily by many Tunisian households.

Challenges in maintaining the bread supply have been growing for months as the government has struggled to finance flour imports due to faltering credit and shortfalls. Faltering domestic wheat production this year has placed additional pressure on the wheat supply chain which ultimately provides flour to bakers.

Outlook:  

The move to limit access for private bakeries to subsidized flour is a strategic one as the consumers impacted will likely be less financially vulnerable and therefore less likely to respond negatively to the change.

In the long term, impacts on the bread supply will likely continue to erode approval of the current government and frustrated working-class Tunisians who rely on baguettes for affordable daily consumption.

The bread riots of the winter of 1983-1984 loom large in the minds of many Tunisians, continuing to make bread “untouchable” in terms of policy reform. Should the government continue to struggle to source financial assistance, the Tunisian public’s tolerance for reform to bread subsidies could eventually be tested.

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