Summary:

This week, security events in both Algeria and Libya served as stark reminders that regional stability and trans-regional security issues remain a potential challenge to Tunisia.

Algerian officials reported disruption of multiple terrorist cells, including one cell based in Tbessa, Algeria. Tbessa is in a rugged region just across the border from Tunisia’s Mount Chambi in Kasserine, a location with a history of terrorist activity. Multiple foreign governments, including the US, UK, New Zealand Canada, and others have issued strong warnings to citizens against traveling to this area of Kasserine due to the assessed terrorist threat.

Meanwhile, violence in Libya spiked after a period of relative calm as political tensions have risen between militias and their leaders who are vying for power and legitimacy, particularly in Tripoli. Over 50 people were killed in fighting and over 100 injured as two powerful militias, the 444 Brigade and al-Radaa, fought following the detention of the 444 Brigade’s leader by al-Radaa.

Libya remains divided, functionally operating with two governments: one based in Tripoli in the west and one based in Benghazi in the east. Both are supported by a range of internal and external actors vying for power.

Outlook:  

Security forces in Tunisia continue to prioritize security and anti-terrorism in order to protect the rebounding tourism industry. However, the potential for overflow from the largely contained terrorist activity in western Tunisia and eastern Algeria or from the unstable areas of western Libya could present security challenges.

Instability in Libya typically directly impacts Tunisia, often with an increase in Libyans traveling to Tunisia, including many seeking to escape rival militias. This sort of people movement risks an overflow of violence into Tunisia.

The stakes remain high for Tunisia to maintain security, particularly as the economy is on the brink of a major crisis and seeking a means of recovery. While tourism is booming, many Tunisians are feeling economic pressure acutely, creating conditions in which ideological radicalization can grow.

Our team is continuing to watch regional security developments for indications that the security environment in Tunisia is evolving.

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