Tunisia: Spring Weather Likely to Invite Rise in Migrant Sea Crossings
Summary:
On 15 March 2024, the Tunisian Coast Guard rescued 34 irregular migrants from a capsized boat as improving weather conditions have resulted in rising sea crossing attempts to Europe.
The boat that capsized had departed from Libya carrying an estimated 70 irregular migrants. Two were reported dead and over 30 were reported missing.
On 17 March, the government announced that additional operations continued into the weekend, resulting in several hundred irregular migrants, most from sub-Saharan Africa, being returned to Tunisia.
In January 2024, outcry followed reports that a boat carrying approximately 40 Tunisian irregular migrants was lost at sea with the passengers presumed dead after a search effort. In early February 2024, another widely reported incident occurred when 13 Sudanese migrants died when their boat capsized, with dozens more reported missing.
Additional reports come as the European Union seeks to finalize additional migration assistance deals in North Africa as the implementation of the agreement with Tunisia continues under close scrutiny from European Parliamentarians.
Outlook:
As the weather changes, the EU’s migration assistance agreement with Tunisia, hailed as a “blueprint,” will face its first true test. With instability growing in the Sahel, migrants continue to flow toward Mediterranean departure points in Tunisia and Libya seeking passage to Europe.
While the unpredictable winter weather on the Mediterranean Sea has likely discouraged many from attempting the crossing, the warmer spring weather will likely bring a rise in attempted crossings. The technical and material assistance provided by Europe may increase capacity to some extent, but resources are likely to be stretched.
With European Parliamentarians watching closely for effective results that also demonstrate respect for human rights, Tunisia’s relationship with its EU neighbors remains fraught with potential conflict heading into the spring and summer.
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