Summary:

In March 2023, the Institute for Economics and Peace released their 2022 Global Terrorism Index (GTI) which ranks Tunisia 40 out of 163 countries in terms of exposure to terrorism. This particular index uses a weighted average of incidents, fatalities, injuries, and hostages to produce country scores.

Tunis scored a 3.99 out of 10, while Afghanistan – ranked 1 in the index – scored 8.82 out of 10.

The index does not take into account many factors that impact terrorism, including disrupted operations or cells, which have been reported recently in Tunisia. Nor does it factor in the condition of terrorism in neighboring countries or regions. Other North African countries scored higher with Algeria at 37 (4.08), Libya at 32 (4.73) and Egypt at 16 (6.63).

The release of the index included a broad range of observed trends, such as the persistent threat of the Islamic State globally, an increase in the lethality of terrorist attacks in general, and the alarming growth of terrorist activity in the Sahel. Burkina Faso, Nigeria, Mali, and Niger were all included in the index’s top 10 countries exposed to terrorism.

Outlook:  

No index or tracking system can perfectly capture the state of terrorism in a given environment due to the complexity of the issue as well as limitations in collecting quality data. However, the index provides a snapshot of how terrorist activity and threats are shifting, notably toward the African continent.

Tunisia and North Africa in general will continue to feel the impact of both the economic and political instability that breeds terrorist activity, and the resultant destruction, displacement, and insecurity that stem from a rising terrorist threat.

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