Summary:

The war in Ukraine continues to disrupt grain supplies to Tunisia, driving up costs and deepening the government debt crisis. A recent flour shortage was curbed by government intervention, but no resolutions to supply challenges seem imminent.

Analysis:  

The Tunisian government took stopgap measures to prevent a major crisis in critical food supplies, however, the ongoing war in Ukraine will likely force additional extreme measures to prevent additional disruptions to basic commodities and food supplies. With much of the population dependent on the government subsidized baguettes as a primary form of sustenance, the potential need for extreme measures to prop up supplies continues to grow, with few likely options for near-term loans.