Summary:

Following the historically low voter turnout for the 17 December 2022 parliamentary elections, the Union Générale Tunisienne du Travail (UGTT) has increased its criticism of the electoral process and President Kais Saied’s reform program. The UGTT, which claims to represent over 1 million Tunisians, had denounced the election before it was held. UGTT Secretary General Noureddine Taboubi made strong statements following the election indicating that the union would continue to mobilize peacefully to resist unilateral decisions. The UGTT has been increasingly vocal about the potential for reforms linked to the country’s loan deal with the IMF which is yet to be finalized but would require reforms to subsidies and the public sector workforce, which the UGTT has vowed to resist.

Outlook:  

The UGTT and Taboubi continue to ramp up rhetoric counter to Saied’s reform program, which raises the political stakes for the coming weeks that likely include the finalization of the 2023 finance law, 13^th anniversary of the removal of former President Ben Ali from the country and the scheduled second round of runoff parliamentary elections. We are closely watching how the UGTT navigates the coming weeks as protests are likely and have the potential for violence.

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