Summary:

On Tuesday 3 September 2024, the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) hosted discussions between the House of Representatives (HoR) and the Higher Council of State (HCS) to resolve the Central Bank crisis. 

The two chambers agreed on ousting the governor named recently by the Presidential Council and appointing a new Central Bank governor within 30 days.  

The mediation occurred as the former bank governor fled the country amid threats of armed attacks against the bank’s employees in Tripoli while the governor appointed by the Presidential Council is struggling to restore the normal functioning of the Central Bank as international banks interrupted their transactions until the situation stabilizes.  

Meanwhile, the eastern government continues to block oil production despite signing the agreement in order to keep pressure on the Presidential Council, which attended the UN-led discussion but has not approved the agreement yet.  

Outlook: 

The agreement is unlikely to be implemented without the consent of the Tripoli-based government. Tripoli is now facing international pressure as UNSMIL and foreign powers like the US have issued multiple warnings about the danger of violating the Central Bank’s integrity. 

The western government is also being challenged by the Higher Council of State under the rule of its new President Khaled El-Mechri who aligned with the HoR on the Central Bank issue. 

The shutdown of oil production by the eastern government is threatening Tripoli’s revenues which are essential to pay for the allegiances of various militias. The situation is thus growing more critical, as the likelihood of clashes between the various militias that have grown accustomed to the flow of oil revenues rises.

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