Summary:

This week, government data indicated that Tunisia’s dams reached an average fill rate of 36.7% nationally, pointing to a persistent water shortage that continues despite heavy late-spring rains. In April, multiple dams were reported has being completely dry.

Data from the National Observatory for Agriculture noted that dam fill rates in the central part of the country remain precariously low:

• Northern dams averaged a fill rate of 42.6%
• Central dams averaged a fill rate of 16.6%
• Dams on Cap Bon averaged a 9.2% fill rate

As of mid-June, water supplies were still 25% below the average over the preceding three years, which were themselves lower than historical averages.

Given the ongoing shortage, the government reiterated that limitations on the use of water distributed by SONEDE for agriculture, irrigation, cleaning public spaces or washing cars will remain in place until September.

Outlook:  

Despite heavy rains in the late-spring, Tunisia’s water crisis has not abated, with the potential for cumulative impacts on agriculture to grow over the coming months and years. The broader public discussion around the water crisis has waned with many returning to normal practices of water use, despite ongoing shortages heading into summer.

Shortages have already led to a negative impact on some agricultural harvests, with more poorly performing crops expected throughout the summer due to lack of water.

Our team is continuing to closely monitor impacts on agriculture as the potential remains for frustration to grow among Tunisia’s marginalized agricultural communities that can often be forgotten in the political and economic dialogues in Tunis.

As economic impacts are felt, the potential remains for unrest, including protests and demonstrations against the government, particularly as the government budget dwindles in the second half of 2023.

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