Summary:

On Friday, 22 July 2022, Ukraine and Russia signed a deal, mediated by the United Nations and to be aided heavily in execution by Turkey, to release for export an estimated 22 million tons of wheat and other crops, of which Tunisia will likely be a recipient. The deal, which involves a complex regime of security guarantees and cooperation between relevant coast guards and militaries, is designed to facilitate the issuance of an affordable insurance premium to commercial vessel operators who can then resume operations in ports and waterways that have been mined or under fire, making commercial vessel traffic untenable

Analysis:  

The release of wheat from Ukraine may help ease supply and price issues in Tunisia in the near- to mid-term. However, this possibly injection of imports will not resolve the broader issues that make Tunisia’s labyrinthine system of government subsidies and private sector monopolies a source of economy-stressing debt and corruption, particularly in the wheat and grain sector.