Summary:

On 15 December 2024, armed clashes erupted between Libyan militias from the Al-Shurafaa tribe and factions associated with militia leader Mohamed Kushlaf in the city of Zawiya, 47 kilometers west of Tripoli. 

The clashes led to chaos and panic in the local area as families were trapped in their homes and schools were closed. One death and ten injuries were reported after the fighting. 

The militiamen also fought in and around the Zawiya oil refinery which caused severe damage to storage tanks resulting in leaking gas and fires that were eventually controlled by firefighters. The Zawiya refinery is Libya’s second largest, producing approximately 120,000 barrels per day. 

The Libyan National Oil Company (NOC), which dominates much of Libya’s oil sector, called on actors and authorities to keep the conflict away from oil facilities after declaring a force majeure to protect itself from liability for a delivery breach. However, a NOC spokesman confirmed that oil deliveries to Tripoli and the surrounding areas would continue uninterrupted. 

Outlook:   

Militia fighting in populated areas and at important work sites creates a highly dangerous and unpredictable situation for residents and workers and continues to negatively impact overall assessments of Libya’s stability.  

The Tripoli government continues to struggle with containing these militias, in part because the government is reliant upon a web of allegiances with various militia and tribal leaders to maintain its legitimacy.  

The force majeure in the Zawiya oil refinery is likely to raise concerns over Libya’s ability to meet oil export commitments, especially following other oil production shutdowns over the previous months for security and political reasons. 

The shutdowns are likely to harm Tripoli’s efforts to attract investments in oil drilling from multinational oil companies that could be threatened if militia activity is not contained.  

Explore our services or speak with our team of North Africa-based risk experts.