Summary:

On 26 October 2022, the two leaders of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee delivered a letter to Secretary of State Antony Blinken urging the US to work with G7 partners to make additional aid to Tunisia contingent upon a return to democracy. The letter sites a degradation of “democratic norms” and calls for coordination among G7 partners to ensure that economic assistance is conditioned on “unambiguous democratic reform benchmarks.” Among the benchmarks noted are: reinstating an independent judiciary, removing restrictions on political parties, protecting freedom of the press, and allowing unfettered election observation.

Our Outlook:  

As Western democracies ramp up pressure on Tunisia for demonstrable democratic reform, we will be closely watching whether President Kais Saied and his government seek out other foreign partnerships. In the medium-term, Tunisia’s foreign partners and patrons will shape the business and operational environment on the ground. If Tunisia turns away from the West and toward partners such as China or Russia, this may create new challenges for Western firms operating in Tunisia. A chilling of relations with the US would also potentially lessen the Tunisian military’s ability to effectively execute its counterterrorism mission along the relatively porous borders with Algeria and Libya. Over time, security and operational freedom in Tunisia could be impacted if the US slows the financial engine of the Tunisian counterterrorism apparatus.