Summary:

On 30 December 2022, the Central Bank of Tunisia (BCT) announced an increase in interest rates intended to counter inflation estimated to reach 10% in 2023. The rise in rates was the third this year. This latest rise will take the interest rate from 7.25% to 8% and the savings rate from 6.25% to 7%. The previous rise occurred in early October, but only raised the two rates by 25 basis points. A December report from Fitch Ratings warned that inflation will likely continue to plague the Tunisian economy throughout 2023

Outlook:  

We are closely monitoring core economic indicators as the Tunisian government attempts to navigate the ongoing crisis. With additional delays in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan deal approval process, the economic crisis is set to worsen in the short term. With a convergence of political and economic frustration throughout the country, we anticipate the risk environment to be increasingly volatile with increased potential for large security force presence and corresponding demonstrations and protests.

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