Summary:

On 6 November 2022, the political opposition coalition known as the National Salvation Front (NSF) increased calls for political mobilization. The NSF, which has worked to counter President Kais Saied’s reform program, went as far as to call for the formation of a “salvation government.” While few details were provided to support this call, such a move would essentially involve the formation of a second government in Tunisia that would claim the authority to govern in the place of the current government. The escalation comes after earlier this year, the NSF committed to boycotting the December 2022 parliamentary elections on the grounds that elections would not have objective oversight.

Outlook:  

Calls from President Kais Saied’s opposition to form a “salvation government” mark an escalation in rhetoric, however, there are few indications thus far that such a step will be taken. Should the opposition pursue this step, we anticipate a significant decrease in overall political stability likely to be accompanied by the resultant degradation of the security and economic situation in the country. Recent case studies in Syria and Libya demonstrate the inherent challenges that emerge when multiple governments begin claiming authority.