Summary:

On 12 December 2023, the government of the Netherlands issued a report stating that the terrorist threat level in the country had been raised to “substantial.” 

The Dutch report, issued by the National Coordinator for Counterterrorism and Security, states that “organizations like ISIS and al Qa’ida are using the war in Gaza to urge sympathizers to carry out attacks in the West.” 

The announcement from the Netherlands follows an early-December warning from EU Home Affairs Commissioner Ylva Johansson Europe faced a “huge risk” of terrorism in light of the ongoing war in Israel/Palestine. 

In recent days, the Danish government has conducted arrests of terrorist suspects along with Germany. 

Following the escape from Mornaguia prison by five convicted terrorists, counterterrorism operations reported by the government in Tunisia have increased significantly. Amongst the operations was one that reportedly disrupted overseas attack planning.  

A mid-October shooting of two Swedes in Brussels by an irregular Tunisian migrant had already served as a sober reminder to the EU of the risks posed by irregular migrants in Europe. 

Outlook: 

As the war in Israel/Palestine continues, the images and media emerging from Gaza continue to drive highly emotional divides between Tunisia and the country’s traditional Western partners. 

As countries like the US, France, and Germany have supported Israel, frustration among Tunisians has continued to simmer. While the large-scale protests originally observed around Tunisia have subsided, aggressive acts of frustration toward Western facilities have been observed, including the defacing of the AMIDEAST facility in Tunis.  

Overt expressions of frustration are likely to continue to target symbols of Western governments. Additionally, the combination of persistent economic struggles and ideologically driven anger stemming from the war in Israel/Palestine will continue to create the potential for radicalization and subsequent acts of terrorism in Tunisia and abroad. 

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