Summary:

On 30 January 2023, the chairman of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee responsible for the Middle East and North Africa issued a statement critical of President Kais Saied’s current reform program. The statement from Democratic Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut noted a “consolidation of power and turn toward authoritarianism that has severely weakened Tunisia’s democracy.” The statement was issued following the low turnout for the runoff parliamentary elections held on 29 January. The statement goes further, calling for a halt of all U.S. support until Tunisia shows “a significant democratic course correction.”

The new US Ambassador in Tunis Joey Hood assumes his role this week with a mandate to press for democratic norms. In statements during his nomination process, Hood noted “an alarming erosion of democratic norms” in Tunisia, but emphasized engagement and cooperation as the means to democratic ends.

Meanwhile, Chinese Ambassador to Tunis Wan Li presented his credentials to Saied in late January 2023, emphasizing China’s view of Tunisia as an equal and the potential for mutually beneficial economic cooperation in the long term. Saied expressed a willingness to expand relations and noted the importance of the relationship to Tunisia.

Outlook:  

The new U.S. and Chinese Ambassadors arrive amidst growing tension over Tunisia’s economic and political future, with the influence and values of the two powers unavoidably central to the conversation. Chinese messaging has taken a position clearly, if not intentionally opposite that of the U.S., withholding any apparent judgment about the country’s political future and emphasizing economic opportunity. Meanwhile, American political and military leaders, as well as the Western press, have remained laser-focused on the need for democratic reform, either implicitly or explicitly tying the future potential for aid to a return to democratic norms.

Tunisia must continue to navigate the pressures and possibilities of its relationships with these two powers. Siding strongly with either will inevitably dictate aspects of the country’s future.

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