Summary:

Tunisian’s most prominent labor union, the Tunisian General Labor Union (UGTT), has communicated the intent to operate as a spoiler in the impending economic reform project. The reforms, linked to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) deal for a $1.9 billion loan, would require some privatization of nationalized businesses as well as cuts to subsidies. The UGTT has made clear they will work to counter these reforms, including by mobilizing Tunisian workers for a ”social battle” under the auspices of defending the rights of the people.

Our Outlook:  

We are closely monitoring the tone of the UGTT’s messaging and their efforts on the ground to mobilize their contingency against government austerity measures linked to the IMF deal. We anticipate some level of civil unrest in the coming weeks and months, even if performative, as the UGTT will seek to communicate their solidarity with the working class. The UGTT was party to the negotiations leading up to the IMF deal, however, it remains in their interest to proclaim opposition to any measures that will put workers under additional financial pressure, which the agreed-upon reforms would undoubtedly do.