Summary:

On 10 July 2023, Prime Minister Najla Bouden convened a meeting with other senior officials to discuss plans to stabilize the wheat supply chain. Recent disruptions in the supply chain have resulted in shortages of both flour and bread products.

During the meeting, PM Bouden reportedly discussed the need for a digitized system for tracking the distribution of wheat. She also noted that the monthly rate of distribution would be increased by the centralized state distribution system in order to provide additional supplies to flour mills.

Earlier in July, PM Bouden held a similar meeting, during which she announced that needed wheat supplies were available. During the same period, market reports indicated that the Tunisian government had likely made large wheat purchases for import, including approximately 100,000 tons each of soft and durum wheat.

PM Bouden echoed prior comments from President Kais Saied that necessary supplies are in place, but speculators are disrupting the market by stockpiling goods.

Meanwhile, Russia made new threats to exit a wheat export deal brokered by the United Nations and Turkey in mid-2022. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has been highly disruptive of global food supply chains as the two countries provide a significant portion of the wheat to the global market. Despite Russian assertions that the deal has not been beneficial, reports indicate that Russia is exporting record volumes of wheat.

Outlook:  

Food security in Tunisia has been a challenge in recent months, with many working-class food staples sporadically or altogether unavailable.

Stores are still struggling to stock basic foods, including coffee, sugar, and flour. The government succeeded in filling shelves during Ramadan, providing some relief, however, shortages have returned, impacting Tunisia’s poor and marginalized most severely.

Shortages risk further destabilizing Tunisia’s social and economic situation, particularly in poorer neighborhoods.

The risk of social unrest and demonstrations targeting government facilities and ministries is steadily growing as policy solutions remain elusive.

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