Summary:

Since 21 January 2026, clashes between armed groups in western Libya point to the persistent security challenges born from highly localized conflicts and historical disagreements between commanders and their supporters.  

Western Libya, particularly areas of Tripoli and the nearby city of Warshafana, witnessed fighting between non-state military groups. Reports indicated that the most recent exchanges of gunfire stem from longstanding rivalries among various local leaders over territorial control and historical conflicts.  

On 24 January 2026, armed groups exchanged fire in the Al-Hara district of Al-Zawiya between forces loyal to Ahmed Daraa and those affiliated with Abdelmoez Qabasa, two rival militia leaders vying for control in western Libya. Light and medium weapons were used in densely populated residential areas, disrupting daily life. The deployment of numerous armored vehicles in the Al-Sharafa area further reflected a tense standoff. 

Most recently, in Tripoli, the head of the Judicial Police, Faraj al-Mabrouk, was shot by unidentified gunmen while leaving his workplace. Authorities described the attack as a serious violation of the law and a direct targeting of state officials, while reaffirming their commitment to maintaining security and public order. 

Outlook: 

Ongoing militia clashes in Libya highlight the country’s fragmented and unpredictable security landscape, threatening political reconstruction and the path toward unified elections and governance. The persistent presence of armed groups with constantly evolving loyalties, coupled with the strategic importance of the oil sector, risks delaying political initiatives and undermining prospects for a stable economic and political environment in the medium to long term.  

As Zawiya hosts one of the most important oil facilities in the country, armed groups are likely to continue to position themselves to maintain control over facilities or facility access in order to benefit financially and in terms of influence as efforts to expand the country’s oil sector continue. 

These tensions between local leaders and armed groups reflect the uncertainty surrounding Libya’s political transition as the eastern and western government’s remain in a deadlock over executive contol amidst social pressure and street protests calling for the GNU’s removal. 

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