Summary:

On 14 January 2025, Italian news outlet Nova Agency reported that Russia has been transferring combatants and equipment from Syria to the Maaten Al-Sarra military base in southern Libya as the fallout from the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime continues.  

The base is controlled by Libya’s eastern government under the Haftar family and is situated near the borders with Chad and Sudan. 

According to the report, members of the Syrian military, along with Russian technicians, have been developing the infrastructure at the base which had been abandoned since the end of Libyan-Chadian war in 1987.  

These developments come as local Malian TV channels broadcasted videos of the arrival of new Russian tanks, military vehicles, and other equipment transferred from Syria by Russia’s Afrika Corps. 

Meanwhile, on 15 January, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan received Tripoli’s Prime Minister Abdelhamid Dbeibah in Ankara. The two leaders discussed regional and international developments and plans to enhance cooperation in the security and military fields.  

The Ankara meeting comes a day after the Turkish Minister of Transportation and Infrastructure announced the resumption of flights to Benghazi after ten years of suspension.  

In the meantime, the Russian Deputy Energy Minister met with Tripoli’s Ambassador to Russia, Amhamed Al-Maghrawi, to discuss Russia’s interest in enhancing cooperation with Libya on energy. They also discussed resuming meetings of the Joint Governmental Committee which had previously driven economic cooperation between the two countries. 

Outlook: 

Russia likely envisions Libya as a logistical hub to supply its military and paramilitary groups in the Sahel and Sub-Saharan Africa. The fall of Bachar El-Assad in Syria has made it necessary for Russia to find an alternative location in the Mediterranean to maintain its operations and influence in Africa, including for private military contractors like the Wagner Group.  

The Maaten Al-Sarra base is likely to present strategic advantages to Russia as it will permit supplying both allies in the western Sahel and Sudan, in addition to supporting operations in Libya. 

While transferring military equipment to Libya is likely intended to support Russian missions in Africa, General Haftar’s forces are well positioned to benefit from these transfers.  

With Hafter bolstered by an influx of Russian troops, advisors, and equipment, Tripoli is seeking to counterbalance this shift by engaging with Turkey. However, Turkey and Russia seem to be implementing a pragmatic policy by seeking economic cooperation with both of Libya’s governments while arranging a military balance that deters both Libyan sides from launching military offenses.  

Some observers suggest that Turkey is permitting Russia’s logistical transfers through its airspace to increase its strategic leverage by becoming an important pillar to Russian ambitions in Africa and the Mediterranean while displaying its indispensability to NATO to curb Russian influence.  

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