Summary:

Milk continues to be difficult to find throughout Tunisia, with police guarding milk delivery trucks and a range of black and grey markets emerging. The Russian war in Ukraine has exasperated a pre-existing problem by disrupting the supply chain for feed and dietary supplements that drive milk production in Tunisian herds. As prices have risen dramatically, farmers have been forced to operate at a loss, many of them selling cattle in order to manage costs. Farmers reportedly dispensed with around 30% of their livestock in 2022, some through official means and others by way of smuggling routes to neighboring countries.  Tunisians at every socio-economic level are already feeling the pain of shortages, including issues finding fuel and stocking store shelves with butter, sugar, and rice.

Outlook:  

As Ramadan approaches, the issue of milk shortages will become increasingly frustrating for Tunisia’s households that which typically expand their milk consumption by between 20-30% during Islam’s holy month. Our team continues to watch for shifts in markets and public perceptions that might point toward more disruptive social unrest or protests as residents become increasingly frustrated with supply issues.

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