Summary:

On 14 January 2023, large crowds gathered in downtown Tunis to protest again President Kais Saied. A range of interest groups were represented, including members of the opposition coalition known as National Salvation Front (NSF), which had reportedly called for the protest. The crowds were widely estimated in the thousands, with indications that this was among the largest protests in the last several years. The protests remained largely peaceful with some tense encounters with security personnel reported.

Outlook:  

While well-attended, the 14 January protests seemed to have fallen short of catalyzing a country-wide movement against President Kais Saied. While a larger protest, the voices present were largely those who have been against Saied since his suspension of parliament. Observers noted that the crowd was made up of older citizens but lacked a meaningful representation of young people.

The President’s political opposition has codified a consistent anti-Saied message but seems to lack a compelling vision of what might come next and has, thus far, failed to engage a broad swath of young and working-class Tunisians. The absence of an official Union Générale Tunisienne du Travail (UGTT) presence was noteworthy, and likely limited the overall turnout.

Our team is continuing to monitor Tunisia’s political dynamics for potential shifts that could lead to more disruptive political activities or civil unrest. We are particularly interested in how ongoing discussions evolve between Tunisian’s leading civil society organizations, who could have a more significant influence over future political developments than the groups that gathered over the weekend.

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